THE FUTURE IS AN OPEN QUESTION

Trade the future,
Split with conviction.

Instead of a one-word bet, Split lets you split your confidence across outcomes in percentages. State how likely an outcome is. That probability is your order.

Your probability. Kelly-sized orders.
SplitMARKETSDemo market
CRYPTO · YEAR-END

Hype goes sub-$50
by end of year?

61%Market probability
Illustrative odds
Past week · sample data
Below $50 61%$50 or above 39%

The next chapter
is yours to call.

A world worth watching
CryptoFinanceTechnologyCultureSports

01 / THE MARKET FLOOR

What happens next?

Not a feed of tickers. A floor of questions.

Explore all markets

Sample markets · demo odds

02 / INTRODUCING SPLIT

A question.
A percentage.
Your conviction.

Give your prediction a percentage. Your confidence becomes the input to an order, and the engine compares it with the live market before sizing a position.

Rules before the first trade

Every market states its claim and resolution criteria before participants take a position.

Confidence, expressed precisely

Split your confidence across outcomes. A 76% forecast communicates how likely you think an outcome is.

A reputation built on accuracy

At resolution, your forecast is scored against the actual outcome and contributes to your reputation.

Read the introduction
YOUR CONFIDENCEDemo

Hype goes sub-$50
by end of year?

76%

Move the slider to split your confidence.

Below $5076%
$50 or above24%
Market probability q61%
Your edge p − q+15 percentage points

Positive edge. Kelly determines the stake.

Illustrative example with a fixed market probability. No order is placed here.

Open market in Split

03 / FROM CONFIDENCE TO A POSITION

How it works.

  1. State a probability

    Pick an outcome and say how likely it is. That number is the order — not a share count.

  2. Kelly sizes it

    The engine reads the live book, measures your edge p − q, and stakes a fraction of the Kelly optimum. No edge, no trade.

    p Your probabilityq Market probability

  3. Fills, then scoring

    Your position changes only when the venue reports a fill. At resolution, a Brier score measures your forecast’s accuracy and updates your reputation.

04 / UNDER THE SURFACE

The technology
behind your position.

Three connected layers bring a market from its first order to its final outcome. Each layer can be inspected independently.

  1. 01 / ORDERS

    Trading

    Turns stated probabilities into orders. Kelly sizing uses your edge against the live book, and positions update after venue-confirmed fills.

    How matching fits in
  2. 02 / OUTCOME

    Oracle

    Posts a signed resolution report using the market’s named source. Disputed reports enter a challenge window.

    How outcomes are reported
  3. 03 / SETTLEMENT

    Settlement

    Transfers value after resolution becomes final. Published rules connect the outcome to the payout.

    How resolution becomes final
CORE CONTRACTS
Market factoryPosition vaultSettlement module
Contract architecture

One protocol. More ways in.

The same market data and settlement layer, whether you use the app or build your own interface.

Developer overview

05 / A FEW GOOD QUESTIONS

Curiosity
looks good on you.

Start here. Go deeper in the docs.

Visit the docs
What is Split?

Split lets you express your confidence in outcomes as percentages. The engine uses your probability and the live market to size an order, then tracks your forecasting accuracy over time.

How are outcomes determined?

Each market names its resolution source. An oracle submits a signed report when the outcome is known. Disputed reports enter a challenge window before resolution becomes final.

Who is it for?

Traders, analysts, sports fans, researchers, and anyone with a strong view about the future.

What can I predict?

Markets, sports, technology, politics, entertainment, business events, and more.

Can I build on Split?

The developer interfaces include a TypeScript SDK, REST API, WebSockets, and webhooks. They share one data model and connect to the same protocol as the app. Explore the developer docs ↗

How is conviction scored?

At resolution, a Brier score compares your stated probability with the actual outcome. That score contributes to your reputation, so the accuracy of your confidence matters.

THE FUTURE DOESN’T WAIT.

Your view of the future
is a market.

Explore markets and put your conviction on-chain.

Explore markets
POSSIBILITY, IN EVERY DIRECTION.